What 12 AI models expect in the 2026 midterms
Eight models put the House in Democratic hands, nine see Republicans holding the Senate, and the 2027 Élysée is a four-way split. The full read of the board — and the dates behind it.
Read the analysis →ANALYSIS · OCT 30, 2026
Notes from the
forecast desk.
How the models called the midterms, what the numbers really mean, and how the scoring works. Written before the vote.
How we score an election forecast — and what the score does not measure
Pre-registration, a fixed judge, specificity/grounding/calibration, and the Brier score we add once the results are certified.
Read the method →