2026 MIDTERMS · RESULTS
The verdict,
when it is certified.
This page will compare the sealed forecasts with the certified control of the House and Senate: model accuracy, Brier score and calibration. Nothing is filled in before the results exist.
Forecasts sealed 2026-10-31 · official results pending certification
Awaiting certified results
No result has been ingested yet. We use official sources only: state election offices, then FEC and Clerk of the House totals. Preliminary state results are labelled uncertified; no media race calls are used. Certification can take days after 3 November, so this page may remain pending longer than a media forecast.
Sealed snapshot · SHA-256 26c1563ea12200b9436e9ab7fd03b1af7f59fd17aea5697a2bd96a25bd38b2d9
Accuracy
Share of models whose House or Senate control call matches the certified result.
Brier score
Mean squared error of each model's implied Democratic-control probability. Lower is better.
Calibration
Do 70% calls happen about 70% of the time? We will show it when the sample allows.
What will be published
- Certified control of the House and the Senate, with source and timestamp
- Each model's call, stated probability, correctness and Brier score
- Aggregate accuracy and mean Brier per race
- A calibration note — and its limits with 18 models
Official sources
Official sources only. State election-office results published on election night are labelled preliminary and uncertified; FEC and Clerk of the House totals are final after certification. No media race calls are used.
- State election offices — preliminary results ↗ Senate, House, Governors · election night · uncertified
- FEC — Election results and voting information ↗ Final federal results · after certification
- Clerk of the U.S. House — Election information ↗ Official House vote counts · after certification
- EAC — Canvass and certification ↗ Certification process · reference
We will not mix preliminary and certified results without labelling them.